Tipo de cambio cerrará el año por encima de RD$38.50
BC anuncia que cambiará metodología para medir la inflación.
El gobernador del Banco Central, Héctor Valdez Albizu, destacó ayer la estabilidad macroeconómica de la que goza República Dominicana y precisó que el año que finaliza el gobierno se va a economizar US$1 en cuanto a la tasa de cambio proyectada en el presupuesto nacional, debido a que estimó un valor de RD$39.50 y se terminará en el año con tasa de cambio de RD$38.50.
Valdez Albizu enfatizó que no es posible vivir con un tipo de cambio anclado y recalcó que en este país cuando esto sucede dicen que hay represa financiera y cuando se mueve para equilibrar el comercio exterior (importaciones y exportaciones) dicen que lo están acelerando, y eso no es verdad, porque la inflación ronda 7.5% a septiembre, anualizada es menor de 9% y el crecimiento del tipo de cambio es de menos de 3%.
El funcionario recalcó que no es posible vivir anclados como tampoco estimular deliberadamente la tasa cambio, sino esperar el movimiento dinámico de la economía.
Indicó que el presupuesto de 2011 establece una tasa de RD$39.50 a diciembre y un promedio de RD$39.00, “y vamos a terminar este año con un promedio por debajo de RD$38.00, lo que quiere decir que por cada operación en moneda extranjera que el gobierno esté haciendo en término de promedio se estará ganando el equivalente a un dólar, que son RD$38.50”.
Señaló que todo el que quiere gozar sobre el tema cambiario que disfrute, pero lo que sí asegura es que aquí no hay crisis económica y que eso sólo está en la mente de gentes que quisieran que la haya.
Sostuvo que tanto el gobierno como la oposición deben estar pensando en no crear expectativas negativas, ni aprensiones a la población de lo que va a pasar, “si no existe, no la busquemos donde no hay”.
Recordó que el año pasado el gobierno depositó US$750 millones de los bonos soberanos en el BC, los que fue usando en la medida de sus necesidades, lo que se explica en un exceso depósitos del gobierno, no una pérdida de reservas, porque en todos los trimestres el Banco Centralo ha superado las metas establecidas con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) entre US$200 y 250 millones.
Reiteró que en septiembre las reservas del BC cerraron por encima de US$220 millones de las metas con el FMI, “que es el objetivo del banco”.
Nueva metodología
El Banco Central de República Dominicana cambiará, a partir de 2012, su metodología de medición del esquema de la inflación, por lo que en adelante pasará de medir tasas anuales de agregados monetarios (M1, M2, y M3) a metas explícitas de inflación, “en consonancia con la Constitución de la República y con la Ley Monetaria y Financiera 83-02”. El M1 es la cantidad de dinero en manos del público, el M2 es el medio circulante (M1 más el cuasifiscal).
El gobernador del Banco Central señaló que esa medida forma parte del compromiso asumido en el pacto Stand by firmado en 2009 con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y que la misma se aplica en 27 bancos centrales de otras naciones de América Latina, donde Chile fue pionero y se ha seguido en México, Colombia, Perú y Guatemala.
Valdez Albizu dijo, al hablar en la apertura del taller “Esquema de metas de inflación”, impartido a periodistas del área económica como parte del programa educativo de la entidad, que el esquema de metas de inflación es importante porque permite crear un ambiente de certidumbre al sector económico sobre cuál será el movimiento de los precios.
Aseguró que la estabilidad de precios, macroeconómica, da seguridad y fortaleza al espectro económico para la toma de decisiones. Reiteró que en RD no hay crisis económica, sino que lo que ha habido son problemas que son seculares (en el tiempo, de más de 20 años).
Las metas de inflación se conocen como “inflation targeting”.
Valdez Albizu dijo que desde 2005 la entidad monetaria ha ido asumiendo gradualmente este esquema, “lo cual tiende a anclar las expectativas de los agentes del mercado en torno a esa meta específica” y está acorde a la banca central moderna.
En el taller participaron los economistas Joel Tejeda, Julio Andújar y Fran Fuentes, así como el economista uruguayo y consultor de comunicaciones en temas económicos, Álvaro Pérez.
De acuerdo con datos del BC como resultado de encuesta de expectativas macroeconómicas de analistas del sector privado y académicos las expectativas de inflación son de 8.4% este mes, de una tasa cambiaria de RD$39.11, un crecimiento del PIB de 4.3% para el año, y una tasa de política monetaria de 7%. En la actualidad, hay seis países de la región en transición al Esquema de Metas de Inflación (EMI) que son Costa Rica, Uruguay, República Dominicana y Paraguay. A partir del Esquema de Metas de Inflación saldrán comunicados de política monetaria, informe de política monetaria, encuesta de expectativas macroeconómicas, informe de estabilidad financiera, trabajos de investigación económica y programa monetario con metas de inflación.
De acuerdo con datos del Banco Central como resultado de encuestas de expectativas macroeconómicas de analistas del sector privado y académicos las expectativas de inflación son de 8.4 por ciento para este mes, de una tasa cambiaria de RD$39.11, un crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 4.3 por ciento para el año, y una tasa de política monetaria de 7 por ciento.
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